World Cups and the Curse of Low Sample Sizes

Manuel Brenner
6 min readDec 8, 2022

“14 games is a fairly low sample size. If you want to determine who the best player is, you need more matches. If you want to find the best player, you need to change the format to increase the chance of finding the best player.”
Magnus Carlsen, World Chess Champion

The German team was kicked out of the football world cup in Qatar in the preliminary round for the second time in a row after the same thing happened in 2018 in Russia.